Determination and deterrence ultimately lead to victory: the middle eastern lesson for Zelensky’s Ukraine
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Deterrence: a word burdened by the weight of geopolitical and military specialization. A simple comparison between what is happening in the middle east and Ukraine reveals its significance. With accusations of war crimes involving chemical and biological weapons—substantiated by western and british intelligence—Ukrainian operatives claimed responsibility for the assassination of general Kirillov on a moscow street. While the offensive in the Donbas continues, the Russians are threatening retaliation against Kyiv. The exact contours of this reprisal remain unclear, but given the high-profile nature of the targeted individual and the enemy’s public acknowledgment of the act, suspicions lean toward something highly consequential. For over a month, Biden has been a lame duck, and his earlier replacement as a candidate weakened the White House’s ability to respond to Russia’s offensive with symmetrical force—or, in other words, deterrence. With Trump’s election, any balance in this regard has collapsed, and discussions of a peace—whether or not it includes a minimum level of justice for those affected and whose cities were destroyed—alternate with a starkly opposite reality on the ground. Everything seems to hinge on abstract political calculations, lacking the backing of deterrence. Does it benefit Trump to force a dishonorable peace by withdrawing support for Ukraine, thus rewarding the aggressor? Does it benefit Putin to halt his costly war machine in exchange for a passport or some form of safe passage for his expansionist strategy and the strategic reshaping of ex-Soviet Europe? These speculative political questions coincide with an exponential rise in military risks, as the Kremlin promises retaliation.
In the middle east, things are different. Following the pogrom of October 7—Hamas’s act of aggression—there has not been the arduous construction of a coalition of states, which initially unified and fought together, only to dissolve progressively amid Washington’s internal power struggles. Instead, there has been the mobilization of an army and a clear, uncompromising prosecution of war against the various fronts opened by Iran’s pre-nuclear state terrorism: from Hezbollah in the north to Syria, Gaza, and Yemen’s mountains. There is now concrete talk of a deal for the release of hostages and a prisoner exchange. It seems that the balance of power has finally made it possible to achieve something both reasonable and compassionate after immense tragedies, without prematurely building a nebulous compromise government in Gaza. This has been enabled by opening a front that dismantled Iranian supply routes to its war of annihilation against Israel, dealt severe blows to its Shia and Sunni Islamist forces from Beirut to Gaza, neutralized Syria’s Assad regime and its Russian patron for the moment, and delivered a lesson in humility to a regime weakened by massive strikes—even in Tehran.
In summary, where forces united in the name of freedom and independence have been constrained by limitations on arms and their use, coupled with the final convulsions of the U.S. presidential race, the situation grows increasingly perilous. Conversely, where overwhelming force has been applied, and leadership has shown no inclination to be intimidated by an international campaign of dissuasion and political isolation, genuine prospects for rebalancing and curbing a regime of terror have emerged. Equilibrium and possible peace—perspectives receding on the Ukrainian front but drawing closer in the Middle East—are not the product of weakness but of determination and strength.
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“Ferrara, Giuliano. Nato a Roma il 7 gennaio del ’52 da genitori iscritti al partito comunista dal ’42, partigiani combattenti senza orgogli luciferini né retoriche combattentistiche. Famiglia di tradizioni liberali per parte di padre, il nonno Mario era un noto avvocato e pubblicista (editorialista del Mondo di Mario Pannunzio e del Corriere della Sera) che difese gli antifascisti davanti al Tribunale Speciale per la sicurezza dello Stato.